Published December 8, 2025

'Tis The Season

Written by Justin Etherton

’Tis the Season

Thanksgiving was a wonderful stretch of time—extended family, sports, and some much-needed relaxation. I truly enjoyed it. I had a few “back-burner” projects I hoped to knock out, but they didn’t happen. And honestly? I’m completely okay with that. Time with family and a little rest is never time wasted.

Winter isn’t officially here yet, but it’s definitely making its presence known. My morning runs have been noticeably colder this week, while the afternoons are warming up nicely. The sun setting earlier and earlier might be my least favorite part of the season. And if you have kids in school, you know this window between Thanksgiving and Christmas can feel like the longest 2–3 weeks of the year—everyone’s excited for the holidays, but we’re not quite there yet. The mountains are still waiting on enough snow to make a ski trip feel worthwhile, and calendars are filling up fast with parties, friends, and festive events.

My favorite part of this season is the spirit of it all. As a Christian, we celebrate the birth of Christ—Advent, the 12 days of Christmas, and so much more. This time of year carries a special sense of kindness, generosity, forgiveness, grace, hope, peace, and love. I believe that’s the spirit of Christ on display, and it’s something I never want to take for granted.

I also love the traditions we’ve built with our kids—Elf on the Shelf, an Advent calendar of Christmas books to unwrap and read at night, Christmas movie nights all month long, Christmas breakfast, and more. Most of all, I hope they carry forward the joy of giving and loving others.

We have plenty of traditions, and I enjoy every one of them. I’d love to hear from you: what’s your favorite Christmas tradition?

Real Estate Market Updates

The rest of this email includes updates and articles about our local real estate market. There’s always something worth paying attention to, and I’m happy to talk through what it means for you.

Right now, the market remains delicate—but there is opportunity on both sides:

Buyers: there are deals to be found today with the right approach.
Sellers: with the right strategy, you can still position your home to earn top dollar.

If you’re thinking about making a move—now or in the next few months—reach out anytime. I’m always glad to help you game plan.

Merry Christmas,

Etherton Real Estate 15th Annual Canned Food Drive

Over 70 percent of local households seeking food assistance from the food bank of Santa

Barbara County’s Network must choose between paying for food and other necessities such as utilities and transportation according to the Hunger in America.

Please join Etherton Real Estate Group in a CANNED FOOD DRIVE. Together we can make a big difference in the fight to end hunger this Christmas Season. To date we have donated 135,094 lbs. of food for our community in need through the Santa Barbara Food Bank. If you would like to participate, please message me for a drop off location or ways to help.

Thank you in advance for your participation.

You can donate directly to Santa Barbara Food Bank Here.

Economists expect ‘a reset’ for housing in 2026, ‘not a rebound’

With the U.S. economy at a crossroads, real estate economists have differing home sales forecasts for 2026 — but most expect mortgage rates to continue to drop.

By Dave Gallagher
Real Estate News

Key Points:

Economists have a wide range of predictions for real estate in 2026, due in part to uncertainty about how much more the labor market will weaken.
While some economists have differing expectations for home sales, the general expectation is that prices will stay relatively flat.
Inflation and job market fluctuations will impact mortgage rates, which are expected to tick lower. Rates remain a key factor in the market’s ability to bounce back.

We've reached the point at which real estate economists start rolling out their forecasts for the year ahead — but the unpredictability of the U.S. economy is making the task tough this time around.

A year ago, economists weren't too far off when it came to their predictions for 2025: 30-year mortgage rates did stay above 6%, as most expected, and home sales price growth did slow. Predictions about home sale growth varied, as many economists were overly optimistic.

Depending on how the final weeks of December pencil out, 2025 is shaping up to be either flat or slightly above 2024 in terms of home sales.

For 2026, the main theme from real estate economists' first batch of forecasts is that the housing market should continue to slowly improve for buyers and sellers — even with persistent economic uncertainty.

"Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026," said Mischa Fisher, chief economist at Zillow.

Here's a look at what economists from Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com, Bright MLS and the National Association of Realtors are predicting for 2026, with a focus on three key statistics: sales, mortgage rates and prices. Several other real estate economists are expected to unveil their own forecasts for the year ahead in the next week.

No consensus on home sales

Economists are all over the place when it comes to home sales predictions.

One reason for the differing opinions? The U.S. economy appears to be at a fork in the road. If the job market continues to soften, will that lead to cooling inflation and more short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve? Or will tariffs, wage growth and other factors drive up prices and cause stagflation?

Existing home sales are expected to rise — but by how much depends on who you ask:

Existing home sales will rise 3%, bringing the annualized sales rate to 4.2 million (Redfin).
A 4.3% increase would bring the year's existing home sales total to 4.26 million (Zillow).
A conservative 1.7% rise would put annual sales slightly lower at about 4.1 million (Realtor.com).
Sales could jump by 9%, which would bring annual sales up to 4.5 million (Bright MLS).
A more optimistic forecast anticipates that existing home sales could rise by 14% (NAR).

Pent-up demand and slightly improved affordability are the main reasons Bright MLS is expecting a 9% boost. The organization's report noted that, even if its prediction comes true, housing market activity would still fall short of pre-pandemic levels.

"While lower mortgage rates and more inventory will bring some buyers back, this will be a reset year, not a rebound year," said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. "Market performance will hinge on local economic conditions, making 2026 one of the most geographically divided markets we've seen in years."

Redfin is also characterizing 2026 as a reset year but anticipates a period of gradual home sales increases as affordability slowly improves.

Read the Full Article Here!

California Home Sales Hit 8-Month High—These Counties Came Out on Top

By Joy Dumandan
Realtor.com

California is seeing a glimmer in the housing market as new numbers show home sales hitting an eight-month high, according to the California Association of Realtors®.

Existing, single-family home sales rose in October from both the prior month and a year ago—the highest level since February.

Sales of existing family homes totaled 282,590 in October, up 1.9% from 277,410 in September and up 4.1% from 271,370 in October 2024.

Mortgage interest rates dipped to 6.23% for a 30-year fixed home loan for the week ending Nov. 26, according to Freddie Mac. That's down from 6.26% the week prior.

"The market is very sensitive to interest rates," Oscar Wei, deputy chief economist at C.A.R., tells Realtor.com®. "It's really hard to build momentum, especially since we're not going into homebuying season. People are still concerned about what's going to happen with inflation."

C.A.R. data reveals the median home price edged up 0.4% from $883,640 in September to $886,960 in October—but October's median price slid 0.2% year over year to $888,740. This is the first time in three months it saw a decline.

California's median list price still runs higher than the national median list price of $424,200 in October 2025—that is up 0.4% from last year, but down from month to month.

Among counties, Santa Barbara (26.7%) led the way with a 26.7% increase in median home price gains.

It was followed by Trinity (22%) and Mono (18.6%) counties. In all, 23 California counties recorded year over year median home price gains in October 2025.

"Higher-priced homes in California tend to do a little better compared to the more affordable homes and that's partly because of how the stock market may have fluctuated," says Wei.

More than half (28) of all counties tracked by C.A.R. posted price decreases from a year ago, with Tuolumne (15.3%) dropping the most, and Lassen (-11%) and Del Norte (-9.9%) recording the second and the third steepest annual price declines in October...

Read the Full Article Here!

Mortgage rates drift lower ahead of Fed’s December meeting

Economists say the market “widely expects” another rate cut — but the central bank will be making its next decision without key jobs and inflation data.

By Dave Gallagher
Real Estate News

Key points:

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% this week, bouncing around the lowest levels of the year.
Though the Fed lacks recent government-released labor market and inflation data, many investors still expect the central bank to cut short-term interest rates when officials meet next week.
Other real estate data indicates that the seasonal winter slowdown is underway as supply and demand both weaken.

While most consumers are turning their attention to the end-of-year holidays, a key economic decision slated for next week may set the tone for real estate in early 2026.

Investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut short-term interest rates by 25 basis points when it meets Dec. 9-10. That sentiment is showing up in mortgage rates, which have drifted down in recent days.

If the Fed does make the anticipated cut, it would be the central bank's third-straight 25-point cut — and third total of 2025 — as concerns about a slowing U.S. economy persist.

"A December rate cut, which the market widely expects, could take further pressure off of mortgage rates as the year comes to a close, boosting buying power as the new year approaches," said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com.

Next week's Fed meeting will also provide economic projections, which should offer some insight into where officials think the economy is heading based on the economic data they have.

30-year rate falls below 6.2%

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% this week, according to Freddie Mac. That's down from 6.23% the previous week and is among the lowest levels that mortgage rates have reached in 2025. One year ago, the rate averaged 6.69%.

Mortgage applications are meanwhile showing mixed results, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The seasonally adjusted rate was up 3% this week, but was also down at various points in November.

Fed to meet without recent jobs, inflation data

Fed officials will head into their December meeting without a solid picture on where things stand with the job market and inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' November jobs and inflation reports have both been delayed until mid-December as a result of the federal government shutdown.

Other sources offer partial views on the health of the labor market. According to the payroll processing firm ADP, the number of private employment jobs fell by 32,000 in November. ADP noted that November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional positions and construction. However, Department of Labor data released on Dec. 4 indicated that initial jobless claims fell to a three-year low last week.

These conflicting data points make it unclear whether the labor market is continuing to soften or is in a holding pattern.

Weaker supply, demand in the final weeks of 2025

When assessing other real estate metrics, it appears that the winter hibernation has arrived. Housing inventory is losing momentum, up just 5.1% compared to a year ago — the smallest year-over-year increase in nearly two years, according to Redfin data. Year-over-year pending sales for the four weeks ending on Nov. 30 were down 2.6% — the biggest drop in eight months.

Delistings remain elevated as many sellers appear unwilling to settle for a lower price. However, sellers continue to outnumber buyers, which provides some opportunities for those shopping around for a new home, according to Carlos Castillo, a Redfin Premier agent in Los Angeles.

"House hunters may be able to find a deal because there are more sellers than buyers, but I'm advising buyers to be strategic," Castillo said. "For instance, buyers can ask for concessions and offer less than the asking price, but don't lowball too much. Around 4% less than list price is pretty standard in the Los Angeles area right now."

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ANOTHER SUCCESS STORY!!!

Congratulations to Casey and Sheng on the purchase of this amazing 6 bedroom home in the Hope Ranch Annex. We were able to secure you almost $300k off the purchase price. Thank you for the opportunity to help you.

I can't wait to see how you turn this house into a home!