🍂 Fall in Santa Barbara: Family, Soccer, and Real Estate

In my family, fall means school, sports, and plenty of family time. I coach a couple of my kids’ AYSO teams — and if you didn’t know, AYSO really stands for All Your Saturdays Occupied (and trust me, it feels like that!).

Right now, I’m coaching my 4-year-old on his U6 team — which is basically babysitting with a ball — and my middle son on his U12 team. It’s been a rough first couple of weeks, but I had a great conversation with one parent that reminded me of an important lesson. In rec sports, you’ve got your standouts, your beginners, and a big group in the middle. Some of the kids aren’t the most talented players, but they show up, work hard, and give 100% every time.

That’s a powerful metaphor for life. You won’t always be the best at something — work, school, sports — but effort is always in your control. And often, effort is what makes the biggest difference.

🌦️ Weather & Rates: A Season of Change

By the time you read this, fall will officially be here — even though in Santa Barbara that means our warmest weather. We even had a rare September rainstorm last week! Usually, September and October are bone dry, so maybe this early rain is a hopeful sign for a wetter year.

Interestingly, that rainstorm showed up right as interest rates shifted. The Fed made their first rate cut in over nine months — just a quarter point — but we’re starting to see mortgage rates inch down. Will it be enough to truly boost the real estate market? Only time will tell.

🏡 Santa Barbara Market Update

The past year has been tough for real estate across California. In fact, 21 counties have seen home prices decline. But Santa Barbara is holding strong.

• Median Sales Price (Aug 2024): $1,500,000

• Median Sales Price (Aug 2025): $1,750,000

Even so, ask any local agent or seller, and they’ll tell you it hasn’t been easy. Inventory is up — about 638 homes for sale right now, which is 16% more than last year. Normally, August/September sees fewer homes coming on the market, but this year, that dip hasn’t arrived.

Are sellers trying to time the market? Are buyers waiting for rates to drop further? These are the dynamics we’re watching daily.

🔑 What Really Matters

For all the market talk, the real questions come back to you:

• Why are you buying or selling?

• Are you downsizing for retirement?

• Relocating for work?

• Growing your family and needing more space?

Market timing can help, but life events often matter more. My role is to guide you through today’s market, whatever your “why” may be.

If you’ve been wondering about your real estate goals — buying, selling, or just planning ahead — I’d love to connect. Let’s sit down and map out a strategy to help you get there.

📲 Reach out anytime — I’m here to help you make your next move with confidence.

Fed Cuts Interest Rate By A Quarter Point: What Happens to Mortgage Rates As Markets React.

The Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point, in a highly anticipated decision surrounded by extraordinary political drama.

The 11-1 decision supported by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) brings the central bank’s overnight rate down to a range of 4.0% to 4.25%, marking the first change in rate policy in nine months.

President Donald Trump's economic advisor Stephen Miran, newly appointed to the Fed's Board of Governors and sworn in on Tuesday, was the lone dissenting vote on the panel, calling instead for a larger half-point rate cut.

A quarter-point cut was widely anticipated, and already largely priced into mortgage rates, which have fallen in recent weeks and reached an 11-month low of 6.35% last week, according to Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates typically follow long-term bond yields, which moved higher on Wednesday as markets digested the summary of economic projections issued by the FOMC alongside the rate decision.

Those projections showed Fed policymakers have a median expectation of making two additional rate cuts this year, but just one in 2026—fewer than the three cuts next year that markets anticipated.

"This ongoing gap between market and Fed expectations means that some risk of upward pressure on mortgage rates remains, but for now, consumers have already benefited from the drop in mortgage rates that has brought mortgage rates below 6.5% for the first time in nearly a year and is likely to continue at least through this week," says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.

While the path for mortgage rates beyond that remains unclear, most economists expect them to remain above 6% through the end of the year.

Following the rate decision, the major stock indexes wavered in mixed trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average giving back some of its earlier gains and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite down slightly.

The S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index, which tracks shares of major homebuilders, jumped more than 2% on the rate decision. Homebuilders have been especially sensitive to higher interest rates, which impact both their own financing costs for construction loans and mortgage rates for their customers.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, a key indicator for mortgage rates, moved to session highs as Powell spoke to reporters. Still, those long-term yields, as well as mortgage rates, continued to hover near their lowest levels of 2025.

However, prospective homebuyers who are holding off in anticipation that mortgage rates will automatically fall further after the Fed decision may face disappointment, housing economists warn.

"The Federal Reserve rate cut this week has already been priced into mortgage rates, so the immediate impact will be minimal," says Selma Hepp, chief economist at real estate analytics firm Cotality. "If inflation persists or unexpectedly increases, it could cause mortgage rates to rise again."...

C.A.R releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast

Home Prices Drop in 21 Counties in the California Housing Market

Are you looking to buy or sell a home in California? If so, understanding the latest market trends is crucial. The hot topic? 21 counties in California experience price drops from a year ago, indicating a shift in the housing market. Specifically, Trinity County leads the decline with a significant 19.2% drop, followed by Mendocino (-15.0%) and Plumas (-14.6%). What's causing this change, and how can you leverage it? Let's dive in, and I'll share my thoughts as a real estate enthusiast who’s been watching these patterns develop.

Home Prices Drop in 21 Counties in the California Housing Market

Analyzing the Price Drops: Understanding the “Why”

First, let’s understand what exactly is transpiring here. According to the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.), statewide median home prices in July clocked in at $884,050, which is down 0.3% from July of last year. But statewide figures don't tell the whole story.

Several factors contribute to these localized price drops:

• Elevated Mortgage Rates: Higher interest rates make buying a home more expensive, decreasing buyer demand. This is always a major player.
• Economic Uncertainty: Concerns about the economy also have potential buyers hitting pause.
• Plateauing Inventory: Housing inventory in California is increasing which means buyers have more options.
• Seasonal Trends: The market can sometimes be slower during particular months which exerts downward pressure on the costs.

So, which counties are seeing these impacts the most? Here's a detailed look:

The 21 California Counties with Year-Over-Year Price Drops (July 2025)

To make it super clear, here's a handy list of the counties where prices are down compared to last year, along with the percentage decrease:

            

What This Means for Buyers: Opportunities Abound

If you're a prospective home buyer, especially in one of these 21 counties, now could be a good time to start looking seriously. Here’s why:

• More Negotiation Power: With prices softening, you have a bit more leverage to negotiate a better deal. Don't be afraid to make offers below the asking price, especially if the home has been on the market for a while.
• Interest Rate Dips: While mortgage rates remain elevated, any small dip can make a difference in your monthly payments. Keep an eye on rate trends and consider locking in a rate when it seems favorable.
• Increased Inventory: More homes on the market mean more choices, and you can afford to be pickier about finding the right property for your needs and budget.
• Less Competition: Price decrease would lead to less competition so you have a better chance of scoring your desired property..

What This Means for Sellers: Time to Get Strategic

For homeowners in these counties looking to sell, it's time to adjust your strategy to meet the current market:

• Realistic Pricing: Overpricing your home can lead to it sitting on the market for too long, ultimately resulting in a lower sale price. Work with a knowledgeable real estate agent to determine a competitive listing price based on recent sales data in your area.
• Highlight the Positives: Focus on what makes your property stand out. Invest in minor upgrades, stage your home well, and create compelling marketing materials that showcase its best features.
• Consider Incentives: Be open to offering incentives to attract buyers, such as covering closing costs, providing a home warranty, or offering a credit for repairs. This shows you're willing to work with buyers.
• Be patient: Selling in a buyer's market may take longer than expected. Don't get discouraged if you don't receive immediate offers, and be prepared to negotiate.